Attacking Iraq is a topic that has been propounded for more than a year in international levels and in fact as the most important headline news during this time has always been discussed and analyzed.
Following the publication of a note under the name of “Mojahedin’s future”, we received the following text. The perspective of Mojahedin-Iraq relationship Attacking Iraq is a topic that has been propounded for more than a year in international levels and in fact as the most important headline news during this time has always been discussed and analyzed. Noting that the destiny of Mojahedin has a direct relation with the end of Iraq regime in the case of U.S. attack, we first review the possibilities about the situation of Saddam regime (apart from unpredictable conditions and regarding this assumption that the U.S. attack will be done to overthrow Saddam). The following conditions are possible for the current Iraq regime: 1- the overthrow of Saddam and Ba’ath party and replacing a regime desired by the U.S. 2- the overthrow of Ba’ath party and getting to power by Iraqi oppositions, that has two subconditions itself: a- according to the U.S. requests b- against the U.S. requests 3- the overthrow of Saddam , survival of Ba’ath party and substituting the ruler desired by the U.S. 4- the survival of Saddam and Ba’ath party in power (like the situation in 1991) Although the latter possibility seems very weak this time and of course we can’t exclude the possibility of not attacking at all. With this general view, any assumption that leads to the omission of Saddam from the political scene of Iraq, leads to overall change and movement in the condition of Mojahedin. Mojahedin-Iraq relations Due to the structure of Iraqi Ba’ath regime and the characteristics of Saddam himself, who doesn’t trust anyone at all, there is a complete control, using different mechanisms, over the activities of Mojahedin. For example, it is necessary to tell that Iraq regime is physically present in all Mojahedin bases. Iraq uses Mojahedin to keep its own governorship and to boost the army’s morale. And in crisis situation, Mojahedin equipments are needed to defense this country and Ba’ath regime doesn’t accept to miss these equipments very easily or to leave them unutilized. What seems certain here is that Mojahedin planning whether about Rajavi and other members’ running away to Europe or dispatching organization’s body forces into Iran have been planned for the time of Iraqi regime’s instability and disintegration. For, in normal situation and even at the time of Iraq regime’s falling, Rajavi knows himself as obliged to Saddam. It seems that the U.S. attack includes air raids in order to destroy antiaircraft systems and to destroy economical and military substructures of this country by firing missiles. In such a situation, Mojahedin with the purpose of preserving themselves send their forces out of their bases and put them in high alert in places called “dispersion points” around the bases of Ashraf, Bonyad-e Alavi, Anzali and Faeze. Of course, we shouldn’t forget that the primary goal is to keep Rajavi in a safe place. So, Rajavi and Mojahedin influential members will be positioned in a safe place. In fact, the beginning of the land attack implies the seriousness of attackers’ decision to overthrow Saddam and it can be called as “conditions of relative overthrow”. In this case, Mojahedin forces scattered around would take defensive positions. It is necessary to tell that the dispersion of Mojahedin forces is exactly according to the defensive plan of the Iraqi defensive forces with the main purpose of defending Baghdad. The presence of these forces in provinces of “Diali” and “Vaset” is very important in boosting Iraqis morale and in inviting them to resistance. When Mojahedin defend their bases against possible land assaults from southern and Kurdish regions, they in fact are attending Iraq’s defense system. At the same time, they plan to send their main cadres out of Iraq to Europe. It should be noticed that in 1991, when Iraq regime was threatened by Kurds and Shiites from south and north and this led to the overthrow of 13 provinces, the presence of Mojahedin forces in “Diali” province caused Iraqi forces to resist and therefore this province kept Baghdad from overthrow. In fact, at that time Kurds had only half-heavy weapons such as machine gun but Iraq had equipped Mojahedin with armored units. Consequently, following this experience, Iraq transferred Mojahedin’s bases into Iraq’s army bases, for example “Bonyad-e Alavi” base next to the 2nd army of Iraq base in Mansurieh region, “Mozermi” and “Homayoon” bases inside/next to 4th army of Iraq in Ammareh region, “Habib” base inside the 3rd army base in Basrah region and “Parsian” (Faeze) base in the heart of Tareq garrison in Baghdad region. Cadres’ escape from Iraq to Europe: Reviewing the function of Mojahedin we can understand that in the field of protection, Mojahedin’s primary goal has been the protection of main cadres specially Masoud Rajavi and the first personages who become protected are the leaders of the group. Regarding this, if we look at the events of 1981 and 1982 we realize that Mojahedin sacrificed their executive forces at that time in order to provide a protective shield for the leaders to run away from Iran. So, it could be concluded that the immolation of their ordinary forces in future will be done with the same previous purpose. When we talk about the escape of cadres from Iraq we mean key forces and officials of Mojahedin headquarters. For, military and executive forces, such as the commanders of the quarters, should play the role of a protective shield for Rajavi and other responsible cadres up to the end of the crisis and practically they can’t be separated from ordinary forces. Anyway, when Iraq regime is going to be overthrown the escape of Rajavi and his wife and other main cadres of Mojahedin from Iraq will take an executive form. It is necessary to tell that, Rajavi can runaway only if Saddam’s regime loses its control. For, as it was said earlier, in normal situations this is improbable due to Iraq’s different controls on this group. In the outlook of the overthrow of the current Iraq regime, the last hope for Mojahedin to stay in the structure of this country will disappear. That is to say, there’ll be no place for terrorist teams in Iraq. In such a situation, Mojahedin will have no choice except sending their teams to Iran. Although they’ll try to display it as an aggressive operation against Iran, the reality is that this response will be a very defensive operation and it’s fleeing forward. Most important will be the situation of Mojahedin’s defectors, who won’t be able to convince any country to seek asylum. Now, they’ve a place in Saddam’s case and no country will accept them as refugees. Anyway, even if they can convince a country to seek asylum there they won’t have that freedom they have in Iraq; and then for such a group, that’s alive only with terrorist operations, gradual death will provided

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